Predicted Enhanced Human Propensity of Current Avian-Like H1N1 Swine Influenza Virus from China

Influenza A virus (IAV) subtypes against which little or no pre-existing immunity exists in humans represent a serious threat to global public health. Monitoring of IAV in animal hosts is essential for early and rapid detection of potential pandemic IAV strains to prevent their spread. Recently, the increased pandemic potential of the avian-like swine H1N1 IAV A/swine/Guangdong/104/2013 has been suggested. The virus is infectious in humans and the general population seems to lack neutralizing antibodies against this virus. Here we present an in silico analysis that shows a strong human propensity of this swine virus further confirming its pandemic potential. We suggest mutations which would further enhance its human propensity. We also propose conserved antigenic determinants which could serve as a component of a prepandemic vaccine. The bioinformatics tool, which can be used to further monitor the evolution of swine influenza viruses towards a pandemic virus, are described here and are made publically available (http://www.vin.bg.ac.rs/180/tools/iav_mon.php; http://www.biomedprotection.com/iav_mon.php).