Estimation of second cancer risk after radiotherapy for rectal cancer: comparison of 3D conformal radiotherapy and volumetric modulated arc therapy using different high dose fractionation schemes

PURPOSE: To investigate second cancer risk (SCR) comparing volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and 3D conformal radiotherapy (3DCRT) with different high dose fractionation schemes. METHODS: VMAT and 3DCRT virtual treatment plans for 25 patients previously treated with radiotherapy for rectal cancer were evaluated retrospectively. Doses prescribed were 25 × 1.8 Gy and 5 × 5 Gy, respectively. SCR was estimated using a carcinogenesis model and epidemiological data for carcinoma and sarcoma induction. SCR was determined by lifetime attributable risk (LAR). RESULTS: Mean excess LAR was highest for organs adjacent to the PTV. Total LAR for VMAT and 3DCRT was 2.3–3.0 and 2.0–2.7 %, respectively. For 5 × 5 Gy, LAR was 1.4–1.9 % for VMAT and 1.2–1.6 % for 3DCRT. Organ-specific excess LAR was significantly higher for VMAT, and highest for bladder and colon. Size and shape of the PTV influenced SCR and was highest for age ≤ 40 years. For a patient with an additional lifetime risk of 60 years, LAR was 10 % for 25 × 1.8 Gy and 6 % for 5 × 5 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: No statistically significant difference was detected in SCR using VMAT or 3DCRT. For bladder and colon, organ-specific excess LAR was statistically lower using 3DCRT, however the difference was small. Compared to epidemiological data, SCR was smaller when using a hypofractionated schedule. SCR was 2 % higher at normal life expectancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02572362. Registered 4 October 2015. Retrospectively registered.