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Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics

The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon—the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological age...

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Autores principales: Nardin, Luis G., Miller, Craig R., Ridenhour, Benjamin J., Krone, Stephen M., Joyce, Paul, Baumgaertner, Bert O.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5103819/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27843714
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2678
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author Nardin, Luis G.
Miller, Craig R.
Ridenhour, Benjamin J.
Krone, Stephen M.
Joyce, Paul
Baumgaertner, Bert O.
author_facet Nardin, Luis G.
Miller, Craig R.
Ridenhour, Benjamin J.
Krone, Stephen M.
Joyce, Paul
Baumgaertner, Bert O.
author_sort Nardin, Luis G.
collection PubMed
description The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon—the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals’ payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual’s perceived risk of infection.
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spelling pubmed-51038192016-11-14 Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics Nardin, Luis G. Miller, Craig R. Ridenhour, Benjamin J. Krone, Stephen M. Joyce, Paul Baumgaertner, Bert O. PeerJ Mathematical Biology The spread of infectious diseases can be impacted by human behavior, and behavioral decisions often depend implicitly on a planning horizon—the time in the future over which options are weighed. We investigate the effects of planning horizons on epidemic dynamics. We developed an epidemiological agent-based model (along with an ODE analog) to explore the decision-making of self-interested individuals on adopting prophylactic behavior. The decision-making process incorporates prophylaxis efficacy and disease prevalence with the individuals’ payoffs and planning horizon. Our results show that for short and long planning horizons individuals do not consider engaging in prophylactic behavior. In contrast, individuals adopt prophylactic behavior when considering intermediate planning horizons. Such adoption, however, is not always monotonically associated with the prevalence of the disease, depending on the perceived protection efficacy and the disease parameters. Adoption of prophylactic behavior reduces the epidemic peak size while prolonging the epidemic and potentially generates secondary waves of infection. These effects can be made stronger by increasing the behavioral decision frequency or distorting an individual’s perceived risk of infection. PeerJ Inc. 2016-11-08 /pmc/articles/PMC5103819/ /pubmed/27843714 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2678 Text en ©2016 Nardin et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Mathematical Biology
Nardin, Luis G.
Miller, Craig R.
Ridenhour, Benjamin J.
Krone, Stephen M.
Joyce, Paul
Baumgaertner, Bert O.
Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title_full Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title_fullStr Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title_full_unstemmed Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title_short Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
title_sort planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics
topic Mathematical Biology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5103819/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27843714
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2678
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