TTP as a surrogate endpoint in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with molecular targeted therapy: meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Time to progression (TTP) is suggested as a reliable endpoint compared with the progression-free survival in the clinical trials of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, the correlation between TTP and overall survival (OS) has never been studied. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase data to obtain data source. Eligible studies were randomised controlled phase III trials, which evaluated the efficacy of systemic chemotherapy or molecular targeted therapy in advanced HCC. The association of treatment effects as shown by the hazard ratio (HR) of TTP and OS in each trial was assessed by the Spearman rank correlation coefficient (r(s)) and linear regression analysis. The association between median TTP and OS was also investigated. RESULTS: Nine studies with a total of 18 treatment arms and 6318 patients were included. Incremental benefit from the study treatment in TTP from each trial was correlated with incremental benefit in OS. The r(s) value and R(2) value between log (HR(TTP)) and log (HR(OS)) was 0.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.12–0.94, P=0.024) and 0.57. The minimum TTP effect to predict a treatment effect on OS was 0.63. Median TTP was associated with median OS. The r(s) value between TTP and OS was 0.73 (95% CI 0.40–0.89, P<0.001) and the corresponding R(2) was 0.42. CONCLUSIONS: Our study results suggest that TTP could be used as a surrogate marker for OS in the clinical trials of advanced HCC. However, the results suggest modest correlation between treatment effects on TTP and OS.