Rule-Mining for the Early Prediction of Chronic Kidney Disease Based on Metabolomics and Multi-Source Data

(1)H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)-based metabolic profiling is very promising for the diagnostic of the stages of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Because of the high dimension of NMR spectra datasets and the complex mixture of metabolites in biological samples, the identification of discriminant biomarkers of a disease is challenging. None of the widely used chemometric methods in NMR metabolomics performs a local exhaustive exploration of the data. We developed a descriptive and easily understandable approach that searches for discriminant local phenomena using an original exhaustive rule-mining algorithm in order to predict two groups of patients: 1) patients having low to mild CKD stages with no renal failure and 2) patients having moderate to established CKD stages with renal failure. Our predictive algorithm explores the m-dimensional variable space to capture the local overdensities of the two groups of patients under the form of easily interpretable rules. Afterwards, a L2-penalized logistic regression on the discriminant rules was used to build predictive models of the CKD stages. We explored a complex multi-source dataset that included the clinical, demographic, clinical chemistry, renal pathology and urine metabolomic data of a cohort of 110 patients. Given this multi-source dataset and the complex nature of metabolomic data, we analyzed 1- and 2-dimensional rules in order to integrate the information carried by the interactions between the variables. The results indicated that our local algorithm is a valuable analytical method for the precise characterization of multivariate CKD stage profiles and as efficient as the classical global model using chi2 variable section with an approximately 70% of good classification level. The resulting predictive models predominantly identify urinary metabolites (such as 3-hydroxyisovalerate, carnitine, citrate, dimethylsulfone, creatinine and N-methylnicotinamide) as relevant variables indicating that CKD significantly affects the urinary metabolome. In addition, the simple knowledge of the concentration of urinary metabolites classifies the CKD stage of the patients correctly.