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Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035

BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service. METHODS: We used an age–period–cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and death...

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Autores principales: Smittenaar, C R, Petersen, K A, Stewart, K, Moitt, N
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5117795/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27727232
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2016.304
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author Smittenaar, C R
Petersen, K A
Stewart, K
Moitt, N
author_facet Smittenaar, C R
Petersen, K A
Stewart, K
Moitt, N
author_sort Smittenaar, C R
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service. METHODS: We used an age–period–cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and deaths from 2015 to 2035 based on 1979–2014 UK data. This was converted to rates using ONS population projections. Modified data sets were generated for breast and prostate cancers. RESULTS: Cancer incidence rates are projected to decrease by 0.03% in males and increase by 0.11% in females yearly between 2015 and 2035; thyroid, liver, oral and kidney cancer are among the fastest accelerating cancers. 243 690 female and 270 261 male cancer cases are projected for 2035. Breast and prostate cancers are projected to be the most common cancers among females and males, respectively in 2035. Most cancers' mortality rate is decreasing; there are notable increases for liver, oral and anal cancer. For 2035, there are 95 961 female deaths projected and 116 585 male deaths projected. CONCLUSIONS: These findings stress the need to continue efforts to address cancer risk factors. Furthermore, the increased burden of the number of cancer cases and deaths as a result of the growing and ageing population should be taken into consideration by healthcare planners.
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spelling pubmed-51177952016-12-16 Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035 Smittenaar, C R Petersen, K A Stewart, K Moitt, N Br J Cancer Epidemiology BACKGROUND: Cancer incidence and mortality projections are important for understanding the evolving landscape for cancer risk factors as well as anticipating future burden on the health service. METHODS: We used an age–period–cohort model with natural cubic splines to estimate cancer cases and deaths from 2015 to 2035 based on 1979–2014 UK data. This was converted to rates using ONS population projections. Modified data sets were generated for breast and prostate cancers. RESULTS: Cancer incidence rates are projected to decrease by 0.03% in males and increase by 0.11% in females yearly between 2015 and 2035; thyroid, liver, oral and kidney cancer are among the fastest accelerating cancers. 243 690 female and 270 261 male cancer cases are projected for 2035. Breast and prostate cancers are projected to be the most common cancers among females and males, respectively in 2035. Most cancers' mortality rate is decreasing; there are notable increases for liver, oral and anal cancer. For 2035, there are 95 961 female deaths projected and 116 585 male deaths projected. CONCLUSIONS: These findings stress the need to continue efforts to address cancer risk factors. Furthermore, the increased burden of the number of cancer cases and deaths as a result of the growing and ageing population should be taken into consideration by healthcare planners. Nature Publishing Group 2016-10-25 2016-10-11 /pmc/articles/PMC5117795/ /pubmed/27727232 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2016.304 Text en Copyright © 2016 The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Smittenaar, C R
Petersen, K A
Stewart, K
Moitt, N
Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title_full Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title_fullStr Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title_full_unstemmed Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title_short Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035
title_sort cancer incidence and mortality projections in the uk until 2035
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5117795/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27727232
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/bjc.2016.304
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