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Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China

Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather...

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Autores principales: Xiao, Chan, Wu, Peili, Zhang, Lixia, Song, Lianchun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5137019/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917927
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep38506
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author Xiao, Chan
Wu, Peili
Zhang, Lixia
Song, Lianchun
author_facet Xiao, Chan
Wu, Peili
Zhang, Lixia
Song, Lianchun
author_sort Xiao, Chan
collection PubMed
description Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95(th) percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of −9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7–7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China.
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spelling pubmed-51370192017-01-27 Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China Xiao, Chan Wu, Peili Zhang, Lixia Song, Lianchun Sci Rep Article Global warming increases the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and consequently the potential risks of extreme rainfall. Here we show that maximum hourly summer rainfall intensity has increased by about 11.2% on average, using continuous hourly gauge records for 1971–2013 from 721 weather stations in China. The corresponding event accumulated precipitation has on average increased by more than 10% aided by a small positive trend in events duration. Linear regression of the 95(th) percentile daily precipitation intensity with daily mean surface air temperature shows a negative scaling of −9.6%/K, in contrast to a positive scaling of 10.6%/K for hourly data. This is made up of a positive scaling below the summer mean temperature and a negative scaling above. Using seasonal means instead of daily means, we find a consistent scaling rate for the region of 6.7–7%/K for both daily and hourly precipitation extremes, about 10% higher than the regional Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 6.1%/K based on a mean temperature of 24.6 °C. With up to 18% further increase in extreme precipitation under continuing global warming towards the IPCC’s 1.5 °C target, risks of flash floods will exacerbate on top of the current incapability of urban drainage systems in a rapidly urbanizing China. Nature Publishing Group 2016-12-05 /pmc/articles/PMC5137019/ /pubmed/27917927 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep38506 Text en Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Xiao, Chan
Wu, Peili
Zhang, Lixia
Song, Lianchun
Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title_full Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title_fullStr Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title_full_unstemmed Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title_short Robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in China
title_sort robust increase in extreme summer rainfall intensity during the past four decades observed in china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5137019/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27917927
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep38506
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