Predictive values derived from lower wisdom teeth developmental stages on orthopantomograms to calculate the chronological age in adolescence and young adults as a prerequisite to obtain age-adjusted informed patient consent prior to elective surgical procedures in young patients with incomplete or mismatched personal data

Introduction: Surgical procedures require informed patient consent, which is mandatory prior to any procedure. These requirements apply in particular to elective surgical procedures. The communication with the patient about the procedure has to be comprehensive and based on mutual understanding. Furthermore, the informed consent has to take into account whether a patient is of legal age. As a result of large-scale migration, there are eventually patients planned for medical procedures, whose chronological age can’t be assessed reliably by physical inspection alone. Age determination based on assessing wisdom tooth development stages can be used to help determining whether individuals involved in medical procedures are of legal age, i.e., responsible and accountable. At present, the assessment of wisdom tooth developmental stages barely allows a crude estimate of an individual’s age. This study explores possibilities for more precise predictions of the age of individuals with emphasis on the legal age threshold of 18 years. Material and Methods: 1,900 dental orthopantomograms (female 938, male 962, age: 15–24 years), taken between the years 2000 and 2013 for diagnosis and treatment of diseases of the jaws, were evaluated. 1,895 orthopantomograms (female 935, male 960) of 1,804 patients (female 872, male 932) met the inclusion criteria. The archives of the Department of Diagnostic Radiology in Dentistry, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, and of an oral and maxillofacial office in Rostock, Germany, were used to collect a sufficient number of radiographs. An effort was made to achieve almost equal distribution of age categories in this study group; ‘age’ was given on a particular day. The radiological criteria of lower third molar investigation were: presence and extension of periodontal space, alveolar bone loss, emergence of tooth, and stage of tooth mineralization (according to Demirjian). Univariate and multivariate general linear models were calculated. Using hierarchical multivariate analyses a formula was derived quantifying the development of the four parameters of wisdom tooth over time. This model took repeated measurements of the same persons into account and is only applicable when a person is assessed a second time. The second approach investigates a linear regression model in order to predict the age. In a third approach, a classification and regression tree (CART) was developed to derive cut-off values for the four parameters, resulting in a classification with estimates for sensitivity and specificity. Results: No statistically significant differences were found between parameters related to wisdom tooth localization (right or left side). In univariate analyses being of legal age was associated with consecutive stages of wisdom tooth development, the obliteration of the periodontal space, and tooth emergence, as well with alveolar bone loss; no association was found with tooth mineralization. Multivariate models without repeated measurements revealed imprecise estimates because of the unknown individual-related variability. The precision of these models is thus not very good, although it improves with advancing age. When calculating a CART-analysis and a receiver operating characteristics – area under the curve of 78% was achieved; when maximizing both specificity and sensitivity, a Youden’s index of 47% was achieved (with 73% specificity and 74% sensitivity). Discussion: This study provides a basis to help determine whether a person is 18 years or older in individuals who are assumed to be between 15 and 24 years old. From repeated measurements, we found a linear effect of age on the four parameters in the individuals. However, this information can't be used for prognosis, because of the large intra-individual variability. Thus, although the development of the four parameters can be estimated over time, a direct conclusion with regard to age can’t be drawn from the parameters without previous biographic information about a person. While a single parameter is of limited value for calculating the target age of 18 years, combining several findings, that can be determined on a standard radiography, may potentially be a more reliable diagnostic tool for estimating the target age in both sexes. However, a high degree of precision can’t be achieved. The reason for persistent uncertainty lies in the wide chronological range of wisdom tooth development, which stretches from well below to above the 18(th) life year. The regression approach thus seems not optimal. Although sensitivity and specificity of the CART-model are moderately high, this model is still not reliable as a diagnostic tool. Our findings could have impact, e.g. on elective surgeries for young individuals with unknown biography. However, these results cannot replace social engagement, in particular thorough physical examination of patients and careful registration of their histories. Further studies on the use of this calculation method in different ethnic groups would be desirable.