Use of low density lipoprotein particle number levels as an aid in statin treatment decisions for intermediate risk patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND: The 2013 ACC/AHA guideline recommended either no statin therapy or moderate-intensity statin therapy (MST) for intermediate risk patients—those with 5–7.5% 10-year risk and without cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypercholesterolemia or diabetes. The guideline further suggested that the therapy choice be based on patient-clinician discussions of risks and benefits. Since low-density lipoprotein particle (LDL-P) levels were reported to be associated with CVD independently of traditional risk factors in intermediate and low risk patients, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of using LDL-P levels to identify intermediate risk patients likely to benefit from initiating or intensifying statin therapy. METHODS: We evaluated 5 care strategies for intermediate risk patients. These included the strategies suggested by the guideline: no-statin therapy and MST. We compared each of these strategies to a related strategy that incorporated LDL-P testing. No-statin therapy was compared with the strategy of MST for those with high LDL-P levels and no statin therapy for all other patients (test-and-MST). MST was compared with the strategy of high-intensity statin therapy (HST) for those with high LDL-P levels and MST for all other patients (test-and-HST). We also evaluated the strategy of HST for all. Costs (payer perspective) and utilities were assessed over a 5-year time horizon in a Markov model of 100,000 hypothetical intermediate risk patients. RESULTS: HST dominated all other strategies, costing less and—despite causing 739 more cases of diabetes than did MST—resulting in more quality adjusted life-years (QALYs). For patient-clinician discussions that would otherwise lead to the MST strategy, we found the test-and-HST strategy reduced costs by $4.67 MM and resulted in 134 fewer CVD events and 115 additional QALYs. For patient-clinician discussions that would otherwise lead to no statin therapy, we found that the test-and-MST strategy reduced costs by $3.25 MM, resulted in 97 fewer CVD events and 44 additional QALYs. CONCLUSIONS: The HST strategy was cost saving and improved outcomes in intermediate risk patients. For patient and clinicians concerned about the adverse events associated with HST, using LDL-P levels to target intensified statin therapy could improve outcomes and reduce costs. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-016-0429-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.