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Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections

BACKGROUND: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this p...

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Autores principales: Forsell, Nicklas, Turkovska, Olga, Gusti, Mykola, Obersteiner, Michael, Elzen, Michel den, Havlik, Petr
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5145905/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28018480
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3
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author Forsell, Nicklas
Turkovska, Olga
Gusti, Mykola
Obersteiner, Michael
Elzen, Michel den
Havlik, Petr
author_facet Forsell, Nicklas
Turkovska, Olga
Gusti, Mykola
Obersteiner, Michael
Elzen, Michel den
Havlik, Petr
author_sort Forsell, Nicklas
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties’ expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties’ official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. RESULTS: On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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spelling pubmed-51459052016-12-23 Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections Forsell, Nicklas Turkovska, Olga Gusti, Mykola Obersteiner, Michael Elzen, Michel den Havlik, Petr Carbon Balance Manag Research BACKGROUND: In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties’ expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties’ official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. RESULTS: On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO(2)e year(−1) (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. Springer International Publishing 2016-12-08 /pmc/articles/PMC5145905/ /pubmed/28018480 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2016 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
spellingShingle Research
Forsell, Nicklas
Turkovska, Olga
Gusti, Mykola
Obersteiner, Michael
Elzen, Michel den
Havlik, Petr
Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title_full Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title_fullStr Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title_short Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
title_sort assessing the indcs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5145905/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28018480
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3
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