Conflicting cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers and progression to dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease

BACKGROUND: According to new diagnostic guidelines for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), biomarkers enable estimation of the individual likelihood of underlying AD pathophysiology and the associated risk of progression to AD dementia for patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Nonetheless, how conflicting biomarker constellations affect the progression risk is still elusive. The present study explored the impact of different cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker constellations on the progression risk of MCI patients. METHODS: A multicentre cohort of 469 patients with MCI and available CSF biomarker results and clinical follow-up data was considered. Biomarker values were categorized as positive for AD, negative or borderline. Progression risk differences between patients with different constellations of total Tau (t-Tau), phosphorylated Tau at threonine 181 (p-Tau) and amyloid-beta 1–42 (Aβ(42)) were studied. Group comparison analyses and Cox regression models were employed. RESULTS: Patients with all biomarkers positive for AD (N = 145) had the highest hazard for progression to dementia due to AD, whilst patients with no positive biomarkers (N = 111) had the lowest. The risk of patients with only abnormal p-Tau and/or t-Tau (N = 49) or with positive Aβ(42) in combination with positive t-Tau or p-Tau (N = 119) is significantly lower than that of patients with all biomarkers positive. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of progression to dementia due to AD differs between patients with different CSF biomarker constellations. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13195-016-0220-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.