A novel predictive model based on preoperative blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio for survival prognosis in patients with gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms

PURPOSE: Evaluate the predictive value of the preoperative blood neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on the clinical outcomes of patients with gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (g-NENs) after radical surgery. RESULTS: The NLR was significantly higher in patients with g-NENs than in matched normal volunteers (P < 0.05). A higher blood NLR was not significantly associated with clinical characteristics (all P > 0.05). According to the multivariate analysis, the NLR was an independent prognostic factor of RFS and OS. Nomograms, including the NLR, Ki-67 index and lymph node ratio, had superior discriminative abilities to predict clinical outcomes. The recurrence rate was 37% (55/147). The median time to recurrence was 9 months; 48 (87%) patients experienced recurrence within the first 2 years. Both the NLR and Ki-67 index were correlated with liver metastases (both P < 0.05) and were also negatively correlated with recurrence time (both P < 0.05). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We enrolled 147 patients who were diagnosed with g-NENs and underwent radical surgery. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to identify the optimal value for blood NLR. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis were used to identify prognostic factors for g-NENs. A nomogram was adopted to predict RFS and OS after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: As an independent prognostic factor for g-NENs, blood NLR can improve the predictability of RFS and OS. We recommend that g-NEN patients with a high blood NLR or high Ki-67 index undergo surveillance during the first month and then every 3 months for 2 years post-surgery.