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Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis

BACKGROUND: The first autochthonous Chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia was reported in September 2014. Three months later, every town in the Caribbean region was affected, including the bordering towns of Ovejas and Corozal, in the department of Sucre. The objective of the study was to analy...

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Autores principales: Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael, Méndez, Nelson, Mattar, Salim, Arrieta, Germán, Gomezcaceres, Luty
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5219791/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28074128
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13690-016-0169-1
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author Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael
Méndez, Nelson
Mattar, Salim
Arrieta, Germán
Gomezcaceres, Luty
author_facet Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael
Méndez, Nelson
Mattar, Salim
Arrieta, Germán
Gomezcaceres, Luty
author_sort Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The first autochthonous Chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia was reported in September 2014. Three months later, every town in the Caribbean region was affected, including the bordering towns of Ovejas and Corozal, in the department of Sucre. The objective of the study was to analyze and compare the temporal dynamics of the outbreak of Chikungunya in two towns of the department of Sucre. METHODS: Households with suspicious cases with clinical symptomatology for Chikungunya were enrolled. In each house an epidemiological questionnaire was applied to collect economic and social information and methods for vector control. RESULTS: The study analyzed data collected between 09/01/2014 and 01/31/2015; 458 families in Corozal and 516 families in Ovejas were identified with Chikungunya cases. Estimated attack rates were 10,621 cases and 1640 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in Ovejas and Corozal, respectively. The 75-day survival curve was 27.2% lower (0.632, CI = 0.614–0.651) in Ovejas than in Corozal (0.904, CI = 0.891–0.917). After 120 days, both curves showed a stable horizontal slope, close to a survival probability of 0.54, indicating the end of the epidemic period. The log-rank test (X (2) = 94.6, 1fd, p-value = 0.000) showed the improved survival of Chikungunya in the town of Corozal. The relative risk between the two towns was 0.863 (CI = 0.809–0.921; p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The dynamics of the temporal distribution of CHIKV could be influenced by socioeconomic and preventable risk factors. Poor socioeconomic conditions such as the lack and poor efficiency of water supply and waste collection services could be determining factors in the proliferation of CHIKV. The survival analysis proved to be a suitable method for studying the presentation of CHIKV and can be applied to other prevalent vector-borne diseases such as the ZIKA and Dengue.
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spelling pubmed-52197912017-01-10 Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael Méndez, Nelson Mattar, Salim Arrieta, Germán Gomezcaceres, Luty Arch Public Health Research BACKGROUND: The first autochthonous Chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia was reported in September 2014. Three months later, every town in the Caribbean region was affected, including the bordering towns of Ovejas and Corozal, in the department of Sucre. The objective of the study was to analyze and compare the temporal dynamics of the outbreak of Chikungunya in two towns of the department of Sucre. METHODS: Households with suspicious cases with clinical symptomatology for Chikungunya were enrolled. In each house an epidemiological questionnaire was applied to collect economic and social information and methods for vector control. RESULTS: The study analyzed data collected between 09/01/2014 and 01/31/2015; 458 families in Corozal and 516 families in Ovejas were identified with Chikungunya cases. Estimated attack rates were 10,621 cases and 1640 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in Ovejas and Corozal, respectively. The 75-day survival curve was 27.2% lower (0.632, CI = 0.614–0.651) in Ovejas than in Corozal (0.904, CI = 0.891–0.917). After 120 days, both curves showed a stable horizontal slope, close to a survival probability of 0.54, indicating the end of the epidemic period. The log-rank test (X (2) = 94.6, 1fd, p-value = 0.000) showed the improved survival of Chikungunya in the town of Corozal. The relative risk between the two towns was 0.863 (CI = 0.809–0.921; p-value < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The dynamics of the temporal distribution of CHIKV could be influenced by socioeconomic and preventable risk factors. Poor socioeconomic conditions such as the lack and poor efficiency of water supply and waste collection services could be determining factors in the proliferation of CHIKV. The survival analysis proved to be a suitable method for studying the presentation of CHIKV and can be applied to other prevalent vector-borne diseases such as the ZIKA and Dengue. BioMed Central 2017-01-06 /pmc/articles/PMC5219791/ /pubmed/28074128 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13690-016-0169-1 Text en © The Author(s). 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
spellingShingle Research
Oviedo-Pastrana, Misael
Méndez, Nelson
Mattar, Salim
Arrieta, Germán
Gomezcaceres, Luty
Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title_full Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title_fullStr Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title_full_unstemmed Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title_short Epidemic outbreak of Chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the Colombian Caribbean: a survival analysis
title_sort epidemic outbreak of chikungunya in two neighboring towns in the colombian caribbean: a survival analysis
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5219791/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28074128
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13690-016-0169-1
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