The in vivo efficacy of neuraminidase inhibitors cannot be determined from the decay rates of influenza viral titers observed in treated patients

Antiviral therapy is a first line of defence against new influenza strains. Current pandemic preparations involve stock- piling oseltamivir, an oral neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI), so rapidly determining the effectiveness of NAIs against new viral strains is vital for deciding how to use the stockpile. Previous studies have shown that it is possible to extract the drug efficacy of antivirals from the viral decay rate of chronic infections. In the present work, we use a nonlinear mathematical model representing the course of an influenza infection to explore the possibility of extracting NAI drug efficacy using only the observed viral titer decay rates seen in patients. We first show that the effect of a time-varying antiviral concentration can be accurately approximated by a constant efficacy. We derive a relationship relating the true treatment dose and time elapsed between doses to the constant drug dose required to approximate the time- varying dose. Unfortunately, even with the simplification of a constant drug efficacy, we show that the viral decay rate depends not just on drug efficacy, but also on several viral infection parameters, such as infection and production rate, so that it is not possible to extract drug efficacy from viral decay rate alone.