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A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Ret...

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Autores principales: Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza, Hense, Andreas, Rahmani, Elham, Ploeger, Angelika
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2015
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5224549/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28231215
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods4030420
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author Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza
Hense, Andreas
Rahmani, Elham
Ploeger, Angelika
author_facet Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza
Hense, Andreas
Rahmani, Elham
Ploeger, Angelika
author_sort Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza
collection PubMed
description This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.
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spelling pubmed-52245492017-02-15 A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza Hense, Andreas Rahmani, Elham Ploeger, Angelika Foods Article This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data. MDPI 2015-09-11 /pmc/articles/PMC5224549/ /pubmed/28231215 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods4030420 Text en © 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Marami Milani, Mohammad Reza
Hense, Andreas
Rahmani, Elham
Ploeger, Angelika
A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title_full A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title_fullStr A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title_full_unstemmed A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title_short A Pilot Investigation of the Relationship between Climate Variability and Milk Compounds under the Bootstrap Technique
title_sort pilot investigation of the relationship between climate variability and milk compounds under the bootstrap technique
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5224549/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28231215
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods4030420
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