Association of time to prostate-specific antigen nadir and logarithm of prostate-specific antigen velocity after progression in metastatic prostate cancer with prior primary androgen deprivation therapy

We investigated the association of time to prostate-specific antigen nadir (TTPN) and logarithm of prostate-specific antigen velocity after progression Log(PSAVAP) in metastatic prostate cancer with prior primary androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). All metastatic prostate cancer patients treated with primary ADT from 2000 to 2009 were reviewed. Patients who developed disease progression were included in the subsequent analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups according to their TTPN: TTPN of <3 months, 3–17 months, and >17 months. We compared the Log(PSAVAP) between the different TTPN groups using Mann–Whitney U-test and Kruskal–Wallis test. Further multiple linear regression analyses on Log(PSAVAP) were performed to adjust for other potential confounding factors. Among 419 patients who were treated with primary ADT, 306 patients developed disease progression with a median follow-up of 28 months. Longer TTPN was associated with lower Log(PSAVAP) (P = 0.008) within all subgroup analyses (TTPN of <3 vs 3–17 months, P = 0.020; TTPN of 3–17 vs >17 months, P = 0.009; and TTPN of <3 vs >17 months, P = 0.001). Upon multiple linear regression analyses, baseline PSA (regression coefficient 0.001, P = 0.045), PSA nadir (regression coefficient 0.002, P = 0.040), and TTPN (regression coefficient −0.030, P = 0.001) were the three factors that were significantly associated with Log(PSAVAP). In conclusion, a longer TTPN was associated with lower Log(PSAVAP) in metastatic prostate cancer patients following primary ADT. TTPN cut-offs at 3 months and 17 months appeared to have prognostic significance in predicting Log(PSAVAP). TTPN may serve as a good prognostic indicator in deciding the treatment strategy in patients with disease progression.