An Analysis of the Last Clinical Encounter before Outpatient Mortality among Children with HIV Infection and Exposure in Lilongwe, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) contributes to nearly 20% of all deaths in children under five years of age in Malawi. Expanded coverage of antiretroviral therapy has allowed children to access treatment on an outpatient basis. Little is known about characteristics of the final outpatient encounter prior to mortality in the outpatient setting. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study assessed clinical factors associated with mortality among HIV-exposed infants and HIV-infected children less than 18 years of age at the Baylor College of Medicine Abbott Fund Children’s Center of Excellence in Lilongwe, Malawi. We compared clinical indicators documented from the final outpatient encounter for patients who died in the outpatient setting versus those who were alive after their penultimate clinical encounter. RESULTS: Of the 8,546 patients who were attended to over a 10-year period at the Baylor Center of Excellence, 851 had died (10%). Of children who died, 392 (46%) were directly admitted to the hospital after their last clinical encounter and died as inpatients. Of the remaining 459 who died as outpatients after their last visit, 53.5% had a World Health Organization (WHO) stage IV condition at their last visit, and 25% had a WHO stage III condition. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that poor nutritional status, female gender, shorter time as a patient, more clinical encounters in the prior month, if last visit was an unscheduled sick visit, and if the patient had lost weight since their prior visit independently predicted increased mortality in the outpatient setting after the final clinical encounter. CONCLUSION: Clinical indicators may assist in identifying children with HIV who have increased risk of mortality in the outpatient setting. Recognizing these indicators may aid in identifying HIV-infected children who require a higher level of care or closer follow-up.