Spatio-Temporal Variation and Futuristic Emission Scenario of Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide over an Urban Area of Eastern India Using GIS and Coupled AERMOD–WRF Model

The present study focuses on the spatio-temporal variation of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) during June 2013 to May 2015 and its futuristic emission scenario over an urban area (Durgapur) of eastern India. The concentration of ambient NO(2) shows seasonal as well as site specific characteristics. The site with high vehicular density (Muchipara) shows highest NO(2) concentration followed by industrial site (DVC- DTPS Colony) and the residential site (B Zone), respectively. The seasonal variation of ambient NO(2) over the study area is portrayed by means of Geographical Information System based Digital Elevation Model. Out of the total urban area under consideration (114.982 km(2)), the concentration of NO(2) exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) permissible limit over an area of 5.000 km(2), 0.786 km(2) and 0.653 km(2) in post monsoon, winter and pre monsoon, respectively. Wind rose diagrams, correlation and regression analyses show that meteorology plays a crucial role in dilution and dispersion of NO(2) near the earth’s surface. Principal component analysis identifies vehicular source as the major source of NO(2) in all the seasons over the urban region. Coupled AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD)–Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for predicting the concentration of NO(2). Comparison of the observed and simulated data shows that the model overestimates the concentration of NO(2) in all the seasons (except winter). The results show that coupled AERMOD–WRF model can overcome the unavailability of hourly surface as well as upper air meteorological data required for predicting the pollutant concentration, but improvement of emission inventory along with better understanding of the sinks and sources of ambient NO(2) is essential for capturing the more realistic scenario.