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Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes

The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from...

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Autores principales: Vijayakumar, Pavithra, Hoyer, Annika, Nelson, Robert G., Brinks, Ralph, Pavkov, Meda E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5293194/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28166298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171027
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author Vijayakumar, Pavithra
Hoyer, Annika
Nelson, Robert G.
Brinks, Ralph
Pavkov, Meda E.
author_facet Vijayakumar, Pavithra
Hoyer, Annika
Nelson, Robert G.
Brinks, Ralph
Pavkov, Meda E.
author_sort Vijayakumar, Pavithra
collection PubMed
description The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m(2) or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes.
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spelling pubmed-52931942017-02-17 Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes Vijayakumar, Pavithra Hoyer, Annika Nelson, Robert G. Brinks, Ralph Pavkov, Meda E. PLoS One Research Article The objective was to estimate chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence rates from prevalence and mortality data, and compare the estimates with observed (true) incidence rates in a well-characterized population with diabetes. Pima Indians aged 20 years and older with type 2 diabetes were followed from 1982 through 2007. CKD was defined by estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.72 m(2) or albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) ≥30 mg/g. True CKD incidence and mortality rates were computed for the whole study period, and prevalence for the intervals 1982–1994 and 1995–2007. Estimated age-sex stratified CKD incidence rates were computed using illness-death models of the observed prevalences, and of the whole-period mortality rate ratio of CKD to non-CKD persons. Among 1201 participants, 616 incident events of CKD occurred during a median follow-up of 5.6 years. Observed CKD prevalence was 56.9% (95%CI 53.7–60.0) and 48.0% (95%CI 45.2–50.8) in women; 54.0% (95%CI 49.9–58.1) and 49.6% (95%CI 46.0–53.3) in men, across the two periods. Mortality rate was 2.5 (95%CI 1.9–3.3) times as high in women with CKD and 1.6 (95%CI 1.3–2.1) times as high in men with CKD, compared to women or men without CKD. In women, estimated CKD incidence increased linearly from 25.6 (95%CI 4.2–53.0) to 128.6 (95%CI 77.1–196.6) with each 5-year age group up to 69 years, and to 99.8 (95%CI 38.7–204.7) at age ≥70. In men, estimated CKD incidence increased form 28.5 (95%CI 3.8–71.2) at age 20–24 years to 118.7 (95%CI 23.6–336.7) at age ≥70. Age-sex-stratified estimated incidence reflected the magnitude and directional trend of the true incidence and were similar to the true incidence rates (p>0.05 for difference) except for age 20–24 in women (p = 0.008) and age 25–29 in men (p = 0.002). In conclusion, the estimated and observed incidence rates of CKD agree well over 25 years of observation in this well characterized population with type 2 diabetes. Public Library of Science 2017-02-06 /pmc/articles/PMC5293194/ /pubmed/28166298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171027 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Vijayakumar, Pavithra
Hoyer, Annika
Nelson, Robert G.
Brinks, Ralph
Pavkov, Meda E.
Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title_full Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title_fullStr Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title_short Estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in American Indians with type 2 diabetes
title_sort estimation of chronic kidney disease incidence from prevalence and mortality data in american indians with type 2 diabetes
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5293194/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28166298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171027
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