Survival and predictors of mortality among human immunodeficiency virus patients on anti-retroviral treatment at Jinka Hospital, South Omo, Ethiopia: a six years retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES: The survival rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients receiving treatment in Ethiopia is poorly understood. This study aimed to determine the survival rate and predictors of mortality among HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at Jinka Hospital, South Omo, Ethiopia. METHODS: A 6-year retrospective cohort study was conducted using 350 patient records drawn from 1,899 patients on ART at Jinka Hospital from September 2010 to August 2015. The data were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier statistics and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Of the 350 study participants, 315 (90.0%) were censored and 35 (10.0%) died. Twenty-two (62.9%) of the deaths occurred during the first year of treatment. The total follow-up encompassed 1,995 person-years, with an incidence rate of 1.75 deaths per 100 person-years. The mean survival time of patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) was 30.84±19.57 months. The overall survival of patients on HAART was 64.00% (95% confidence interval [CI], 61.85 to 66.21%) at 72 months of follow-up. The significant predictors of mortality included non-disclosure of HIV status (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 5.82; 95% CI, 1.91 to 17.72), a history of tuberculosis (aHR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.41 to 3.51), and ambulatory (aHR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.20 to 8.86) or bedridden (aHR, 4.67; 95% CI, 1.30 to 17.27) functional status, World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage IV illness (aHR, 24.97; 95% CI, 2.75 to 26.45), and substance abusers (aHR, 3.72; 95% CI, 1.39 to 9.97). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a history of tuberculosis treatment, ambulatory or bedridden functional status, or advanced WHO clinical stage disease, as well substance abusers, should be carefully monitored, particularly in the first few months after initiating antiretroviral therapy. Patients should also be encouraged to disclose their status to their relatives.