Cargando…
Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns
Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries can lead to large economic costs and livestock losses but the use of vaccination has been contentious, partly due to uncertainty about emergency FMD vaccination. Value of information methods can be applied to disease outbreak problems such as...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2017
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5312803/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28207777 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318 |
_version_ | 1782508255734398976 |
---|---|
author | Bradbury, Naomi V. Probert, William J. M. Shea, Katriona Runge, Michael C. Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. Keeling, Matt J. Ferrari, Matthew J. Tildesley, Michael J. |
author_facet | Bradbury, Naomi V. Probert, William J. M. Shea, Katriona Runge, Michael C. Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. Keeling, Matt J. Ferrari, Matthew J. Tildesley, Michael J. |
author_sort | Bradbury, Naomi V. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries can lead to large economic costs and livestock losses but the use of vaccination has been contentious, partly due to uncertainty about emergency FMD vaccination. Value of information methods can be applied to disease outbreak problems such as FMD in order to investigate the performance improvement from resolving uncertainties. Here we calculate the expected value of resolving uncertainty about vaccine efficacy, time delay to immunity after vaccination and daily vaccination capacity for a hypothetical FMD outbreak in the UK. If it were possible to resolve all uncertainty prior to the introduction of control, we could expect savings of £55 million in outbreak cost, 221,900 livestock culled and 4.3 days of outbreak duration. All vaccination strategies were found to be preferable to a culling only strategy. However, the optimal vaccination radius was found to be highly dependent upon vaccination capacity for all management objectives. We calculate that by resolving the uncertainty surrounding vaccination capacity we would expect to return over 85% of the above savings, regardless of management objective. It may be possible to resolve uncertainty about daily vaccination capacity before an outbreak, and this would enable decision makers to select the optimal control action via careful contingency planning. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5312803 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-53128032017-03-03 Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns Bradbury, Naomi V. Probert, William J. M. Shea, Katriona Runge, Michael C. Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. Keeling, Matt J. Ferrari, Matthew J. Tildesley, Michael J. PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in non-endemic countries can lead to large economic costs and livestock losses but the use of vaccination has been contentious, partly due to uncertainty about emergency FMD vaccination. Value of information methods can be applied to disease outbreak problems such as FMD in order to investigate the performance improvement from resolving uncertainties. Here we calculate the expected value of resolving uncertainty about vaccine efficacy, time delay to immunity after vaccination and daily vaccination capacity for a hypothetical FMD outbreak in the UK. If it were possible to resolve all uncertainty prior to the introduction of control, we could expect savings of £55 million in outbreak cost, 221,900 livestock culled and 4.3 days of outbreak duration. All vaccination strategies were found to be preferable to a culling only strategy. However, the optimal vaccination radius was found to be highly dependent upon vaccination capacity for all management objectives. We calculate that by resolving the uncertainty surrounding vaccination capacity we would expect to return over 85% of the above savings, regardless of management objective. It may be possible to resolve uncertainty about daily vaccination capacity before an outbreak, and this would enable decision makers to select the optimal control action via careful contingency planning. Public Library of Science 2017-02-16 /pmc/articles/PMC5312803/ /pubmed/28207777 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Bradbury, Naomi V. Probert, William J. M. Shea, Katriona Runge, Michael C. Fonnesbeck, Christopher J. Keeling, Matt J. Ferrari, Matthew J. Tildesley, Michael J. Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title | Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title_full | Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title_fullStr | Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title_short | Quantifying the Value of Perfect Information in Emergency Vaccination Campaigns |
title_sort | quantifying the value of perfect information in emergency vaccination campaigns |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5312803/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28207777 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005318 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT bradburynaomiv quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT probertwilliamjm quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT sheakatriona quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT rungemichaelc quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT fonnesbeckchristopherj quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT keelingmattj quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT ferrarimatthewj quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns AT tildesleymichaelj quantifyingthevalueofperfectinformationinemergencyvaccinationcampaigns |