Systematic review and meta-analysis of the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa: the Cresting Wave

CONTEXT: South Africa has the most HIV infections of any country in the world, yet little is known about the adolescent continuum of care from HIV diagnosis through viral suppression. OBJECTIVE: To determine the adolescent HIV continuum of care in South Africa. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and online conference proceedings from International AIDS Society (IAS), International AIDS Conference (AIDS) and Conference on Retrovirology and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) from 1 January 2005 to 31 July 2015. DATA EXTRACTION: We selected published literature containing South African cohorts and epidemiological data reporting primary data for youth (15–24 years of age) at any stage of the HIV continuum of care (ie, diagnosis, treatment, retention, viral suppression). For the meta-analysis we used six sources for retention in care and nine for viral suppression. RESULTS: Among the estimated 867 283 HIV-infected youth from 15 to 24 years old in South Africa in 2013, 14% accessed antiretroviral therapy (ART). Of those on therapy, ∼83% were retained in care and 81% were virally suppressed. Overall, we estimate that 10% of HIV-infected youth in South Africa in 2013 were virally suppressed. LIMITATIONS: This analysis relies on published data from large mostly urban South Africa cohorts limiting the generalisability to all adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a large increase in ART programmes in South Africa that have relatively high retention rates and viral suppression rates among HIV-infected youth, only a small percentage are virally suppressed, largely due to low numbers of adolescents and young adults accessing ART.