Long-term Impact of Temporal Sequence from Childhood Obesity to Hyperinsulinemia on Adult Metabolic Syndrome and Diabetes: The Bogalusa Heart Study

This study aims to delineate the temporal relations between body mass index (BMI) and insulin in childhood and their impact on adult metabolic syndrome (MetS) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).The longitudinal cohort consisted of 609 whites and 339 blacks who had BMI and fasting insulin measured twice in childhood (mean age = 10.5 years at baseline and 15.9 years at follow-up). Incident MetS and T2DM were identified in adulthood (mean age = 30.5 years). Cross-lagged panel and mediation analysis models were used. After adjusting for age, race, gender, and follow-up years, the cross-lagged path coefficient of BMI → insulin (β = 0.326, p < 0.001) was significantly greater than that of insulin → BMI (β = −0.023, p = 0.207) in childhood, with p < 0.001 for the difference in βs. The path coefficient for BMI → insulin was significantly greater in MetS than in non-MetS groups (0.510 vs 0.190, p < 0.001), and greater in hyperglycemia than in normoglycemia groups (0.503 vs 0.285, p = 0.026). The mediation effect of childhood insulin on the BMI-MetS and BMI-hyperglycemia associations was estimated at 19.2% (p < 0.001) and 18.3% (p < 0.001), respectively. These findings provide evidence that higher BMI levels precede hyperinsulinemia during childhood, and this one-directional relation plays a significant role in the development of MetS and T2DM in adult life.