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Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems

As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projecte...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Tomasek, Bradley J., Williams, Martin M., Davis, Adam S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5322927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28231329
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172301
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author Tomasek, Bradley J.
Williams, Martin M.
Davis, Adam S.
author_facet Tomasek, Bradley J.
Williams, Martin M.
Davis, Adam S.
author_sort Tomasek, Bradley J.
collection PubMed
description As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.
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spelling pubmed-53229272017-03-09 Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems Tomasek, Bradley J. Williams, Martin M. Davis, Adam S. PLoS One Research Article As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2) down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts. Public Library of Science 2017-02-23 /pmc/articles/PMC5322927/ /pubmed/28231329 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172301 Text en https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) public domain dedication.
spellingShingle Research Article
Tomasek, Bradley J.
Williams, Martin M.
Davis, Adam S.
Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title_full Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title_fullStr Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title_full_unstemmed Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title_short Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems
title_sort changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in illinois cropping systems
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5322927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28231329
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172301
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