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Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe

BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estima...

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Autores principales: Lake, Iain R., Jones, Natalia R., Agnew, Maureen, Goodess, Clare M., Giorgi, Filippo, Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda, Semenov, Mikhail A., Solomon, Fabien, Storkey, Jonathan, Vautard, Robert, Epstein, Michelle M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5332176/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27557093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173
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author Lake, Iain R.
Jones, Natalia R.
Agnew, Maureen
Goodess, Clare M.
Giorgi, Filippo
Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Solomon, Fabien
Storkey, Jonathan
Vautard, Robert
Epstein, Michelle M.
author_facet Lake, Iain R.
Jones, Natalia R.
Agnew, Maureen
Goodess, Clare M.
Giorgi, Filippo
Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Solomon, Fabien
Storkey, Jonathan
Vautard, Robert
Epstein, Michelle M.
author_sort Lake, Iain R.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. CITATION: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385–391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173
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spelling pubmed-53321762017-03-15 Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe Lake, Iain R. Jones, Natalia R. Agnew, Maureen Goodess, Clare M. Giorgi, Filippo Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda Semenov, Mikhail A. Solomon, Fabien Storkey, Jonathan Vautard, Robert Epstein, Michelle M. Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. CITATION: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385–391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 2016-08-24 2017-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5332176/ /pubmed/27557093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 Text en http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright.
spellingShingle Research
Lake, Iain R.
Jones, Natalia R.
Agnew, Maureen
Goodess, Clare M.
Giorgi, Filippo
Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda
Semenov, Mikhail A.
Solomon, Fabien
Storkey, Jonathan
Vautard, Robert
Epstein, Michelle M.
Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title_full Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title_fullStr Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title_full_unstemmed Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title_short Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
title_sort climate change and future pollen allergy in europe
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5332176/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27557093
http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173
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