Cargando…
Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe
BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estima...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
2016
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5332176/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27557093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 |
_version_ | 1782511502501085184 |
---|---|
author | Lake, Iain R. Jones, Natalia R. Agnew, Maureen Goodess, Clare M. Giorgi, Filippo Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda Semenov, Mikhail A. Solomon, Fabien Storkey, Jonathan Vautard, Robert Epstein, Michelle M. |
author_facet | Lake, Iain R. Jones, Natalia R. Agnew, Maureen Goodess, Clare M. Giorgi, Filippo Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda Semenov, Mikhail A. Solomon, Fabien Storkey, Jonathan Vautard, Robert Epstein, Michelle M. |
author_sort | Lake, Iain R. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. CITATION: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385–391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5332176 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-53321762017-03-15 Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe Lake, Iain R. Jones, Natalia R. Agnew, Maureen Goodess, Clare M. Giorgi, Filippo Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda Semenov, Mikhail A. Solomon, Fabien Storkey, Jonathan Vautard, Robert Epstein, Michelle M. Environ Health Perspect Research BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose–response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041–2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. CITATION: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385–391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences 2016-08-24 2017-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5332176/ /pubmed/27557093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 Text en http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/mark/1.0/ Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from EHP may be reprinted freely. Use of materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, “Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives”); pertinent reference information should be provided for the article from which the material was reproduced. Articles from EHP, especially the News section, may contain photographs or illustrations copyrighted by other commercial organizations or individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from the holder of the copyright. |
spellingShingle | Research Lake, Iain R. Jones, Natalia R. Agnew, Maureen Goodess, Clare M. Giorgi, Filippo Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda Semenov, Mikhail A. Solomon, Fabien Storkey, Jonathan Vautard, Robert Epstein, Michelle M. Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title | Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title_full | Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title_fullStr | Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed | Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title_short | Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe |
title_sort | climate change and future pollen allergy in europe |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5332176/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27557093 http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT lakeiainr climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT jonesnataliar climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT agnewmaureen climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT goodessclarem climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT giorgifilippo climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT hamaouilaguellynda climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT semenovmikhaila climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT solomonfabien climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT storkeyjonathan climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT vautardrobert climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope AT epsteinmichellem climatechangeandfuturepollenallergyineurope |