Serum glycated hemoglobin level as a predictor of atrial fibrillation: A systematic review with meta-analysis and meta-regression

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a long-term measure of glucose control. Although recent studies demonstrated a potential association between HbA1c levels and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), the results have been inconsistent. The aim of this meta-analysis is to evaluate the utility of HbA1c level in predicting AF. METHODS: PubMed and the Cochrane Library databases were searched for relevant studies up to March 2016. Prospective cohort studies and retrospective case-control studies were included. Relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of AF development were determined for different HbA1c levels. The random effect model was conducted according to the test of heterogeneity among studies. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression models were carried out to identify potential sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: Eight prospective cohort studies with 102,006 participants and 6 retrospective case-control studies with 57,669 patients were finally included in the meta-analysis. In the primary meta-analysis, HbA1c levels were not associated with an increased risk of AF whether as a continuous (RR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.96–1.18) or categorical variable (RR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.83–1.18). Nevertheless, prospective studies showed about 10% increased risk of AF with elevated HbA1c levels both as a continuous (RR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06–1.16) and as a categorical variable (RR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00–1.18). In subgroup analyses, pooled results from studies with longer follow-up durations, published after 2012, aged < 63 years, with exclusion of cardiac surgery patients demonstrated an increased risk of AF for every 1% increase in HbA1c levels, while studies conducted in the United States with longer follow-up (more than 96 months), larger sample size and higher quality score (≥6) showed an increased risk of AF for higher HbA1c level as a categorical variable. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated serum HbA1c levels may be associated with an increased risk of AF, but further data are needed. Serum HbA1c levels might be considered as a potential biomarker for prediction of AF.