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Novel nomograms for survival and progression in HPV+ and HPV- oropharyngeal cancer: a population-based study of 1,542 consecutive patients

BACKGROUND: No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV– oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Larsen, Christian Grønhøj, Jensen, David H., Carlander, Amanda-Louise Fenger, Kiss, Katalin, Andersen, Luise, Olsen, Caroline Holkmann, Andersen, Elo, Garnæs, Emilie, Cilius, Finn, Specht, Lena, von Buchwald, Christian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Impact Journals LLC 2016
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5342120/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27708214
http://dx.doi.org/10.18632/oncotarget.12335
Descripción
Sumario:BACKGROUND: No study has combined tumour and clinical covariates for survival to construct an individual risk-profile for overall survival (OS), time to progression (TTP), and survival after progression (SAP) in patients with HPV+ and HPV– oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Based on the largest-to-date, unselected, population-based cohort of patients diagnosed with OPSCC, we performed a comprehensive analysis of long-term OS, TTP, and SAP and constructed novel nomograms to evaluate patients' prognoses. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 4.0 years (range: 0.8–15.8 yrs.), 690 deaths were recorded. The 5-year OS, TTP, and SAP for the HPV+/p16+ subgroup were 77%, 82%, and 33, vs. 30%, 66%, and 6% for the HPV–/p16– group (P < 0.01). 376 patients failed to maintain disease control with a median TTP of 13 months in the HPV+/p16+ subgroup vs. 8.5 months in the HPV–/p16– subgroup (P < 0.05). HPV combined with p16 status remained one of the most informative covariates in the final Cox regression model for OS, TTP, and SAP. METHODS: We included all patients diagnosed with OPSCC (n = 1,542) between 2000–2014 in Eastern Denmark. Survival rates were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to construct predictive, internally validated nomograms. CONCLUSION: The HPV+/p16+ subgroup had improved OS, TTP, and SAP compared with other combinations of HPV and p16 after adjusting for covariates. Nomograms were constructed for 1-, 5- and 10-year survival probability. Models may aid patients and clinicians in their clinical decision making as well as in counselling, research, and trial design.