Cost–effectiveness analysis of revised WHO guidelines for management of childhood pneumonia in 74 Countdown countries

BACKGROUND: Treatment of childhood pneumonia is a key priority in low–income countries, with substantial resource implications. WHO revised their guidelines for the management of childhood pneumonia in 2013. We estimated and compared the resource requirements, total direct medical cost and cost-effectiveness of childhood pneumonia management in 74 countries with high burden of child mortality (Countdown countries) using the 2005 and 2013 revised WHO guidelines. METHODS: We constructed a cost model using a bottom up approach to estimate the cost of childhood pneumonia management using the 2005 and 2013 WHO guidelines from a public provider perspective in 74 Countdown countries. The cost of pneumonia treatment was estimated, by country, for year 2013, including costs of medicines and service delivery at three different management levels. We also assessed country–specific lives saved and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted due to pneumonia treated in children aged below five years. The cost-effectiveness of pneumonia treatment was estimated in terms of cost per DALY averted by fully implementing WHO treatment guidelines relative to no treatment intervention for pneumonia. RESULTS: Achieving full treatment coverage with the 2005 WHO guidelines was estimated to cost US$ 2.9 (1.9–4.2) billion compared to an estimated US$ 1.8 (0.8–3.0) billion for the revised 2013 WHO guidelines in these countries. Pneumonia management in young children following WHO treatment guidelines could save up to 39.8 million DALYs compared to a zero coverage scenario in the year 2013 in the 74 Countdown countries. The median cost-effectiveness ratio per DALY averted in 74 countries was substantially lower for the 2013 guidelines: US$ 26.6 (interquartile range IQR: 17.7–45.9) vs US$ 38.3 (IQR: US$ 26.2–86.9) per DALY averted for the 2005 guideline respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Child pneumonia management as detailed in standard WHO guidelines is a very cost–effective intervention. Implementation of the 2013 WHO guidelines is expected to result in a 39.5% reduction in treatment costs compared to the 2005 guidelines which could save up to US$ 1.16 (0.68–1.23) billion in the 74 Countdown countries, with potential savings greatest in low HIV burden countries which can implement effective community case management of pneumonia.