The Risk of Incident Mild Cognitive Impairment and Progression to Dementia Considering Mild Cognitive Impairment Subtypes

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear how demographic and clinical characteristics are related to the risk of incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by its subtypes. Moreover, the contribution of the subtypes of incident MCI to the progression to dementia remains puzzling. METHODS: We used data collected by the National Alzheimer Coordinating Center. Our analysis sample included cognitively normal subjects at baseline. The associations were examined using competing-risks survival regression models and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: About 16.3% of subjects developed incident MCI of whom 15.8% progressed to Alz­heimer disease (overall mean follow-up of 4.3 years). The risk of incident amnestic MCI (aMCI) was greater in subjects with 1 copy (subhazard ratio [SHR]: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.00–1.50) or 2 copies (SHR: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.49–3.05) of the APOE ε4 allele than in those who had no ε4 allele. Multiple-domain aMCI patients were more likely to progress to dementia than single-domain aMCI patients (hazard ratio: 2.14; 95% CI: 1.28–3.58). CONCLUSIONS: Cognitively normal subjects with an APOE ε4 allele had a higher likelihood of developing aMCI and the MCI subtype was associated with the dementia subtype. Our findings provide important information about practical indicators for the prediction of cognitive decline.