A comparison of published multidimensional indices to predict outcome in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) has an unpredictable course and prognostic factors are incompletely understood. We aimed to identify prognostic factors, including multidimensional indices from a significant IPF cohort at the Bristol Interstitial Lung Disease Centre in the UK. Patients diagnosed with IPF between 2007 and 2014 were identified. Longitudinal pulmonary physiology and exercise testing results were collated, with all-cause mortality used as the primary outcome. Factors influencing overall, 12- and 24-month survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We found in this real-world cohort of 167 patients, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (D(LCO)) and initiation of long-term oxygen were independent markers of poor prognosis. Exercise testing results predicted 12-month mortality as well as D(LCO), but did not perform as well for overall survival. The Composite Physiological Index was the best performing multidimensional index, but did not outperform D(LCO). Our data confirmed that patients who experienced a fall in forced vital capacity (FVC) >10% had significantly worse survival after that point (p=0.024). Our data from longitudinal follow-up in IPF show that D(LCO) is the best individual prognostic marker, outperforming FVC. Exercise testing is important in predicting early poor outcome. Regular and complete review should be conducted to ensure appropriate care is delivered in a timely fashion.