Re‐establishing the pecking order: Niche models reliably predict suitable habitats for the reintroduction of red‐billed oxpeckers

Distributions of avian mutualists are affected by changes in biotic interactions and environmental conditions driven directly/indirectly by human actions. The range contraction of red‐billed oxpeckers (Buphagus erythrorhynchus) in South Africa is partly a result of the widespread use of acaracides (i.e., mainly cattle dips), toxic to both ticks and oxpeckers. We predicted the habitat suitability of red‐billed oxpeckers in South Africa using ensemble models to assist the ongoing reintroduction efforts and to identify new reintroduction sites for population recovery. The distribution of red‐billed oxpeckers was influenced by moderate to high tree cover, woodland habitats, and starling density (a proxy for cavity‐nesting birds) with regard to nest‐site characteristics. Consumable resources (host and tick density), bioclimate, surface water body density, and proximity to protected areas were other influential predictors. Our models estimated 42,576.88–98,506.98 km(2) of highly suitable habitat (0.5–1) covering the majority of Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West, a substantial portion of northern KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN) and the Gauteng Province. Niche models reliably predicted suitable habitat in 40%–61% of the reintroduction sites where breeding is currently successful. Ensemble, boosted regression trees and generalized additive models predicted few suitable areas in the Eastern Cape and south of KZN that are part of the historic range. A few southern areas in the Northern Cape, outside the historic range, also had suitable sites predicted. Our models are a promising decision support tool for guiding reintroduction programs at macroscales. Apart from active reintroductions, conservation programs should encourage farmers and/or landowners to use oxpecker‐compatible agrochemicals and set up adequate nest boxes to facilitate the population recovery of the red‐billed oxpecker, particularly in human‐modified landscapes. To ensure long‐term conservation success, we suggest that the effect of anthropogenic threats on habitat distributions should be investigated prior to embarking on a reintroduction program, as the habitat in the historical range may no longer be viable for current bird populations.