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Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health

Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-price elasticities for...

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Autores principales: He, Ling-Yun, Yang, Sheng, Chang, Dongfeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5369081/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28257076
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030245
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author He, Ling-Yun
Yang, Sheng
Chang, Dongfeng
author_facet He, Ling-Yun
Yang, Sheng
Chang, Dongfeng
author_sort He, Ling-Yun
collection PubMed
description Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-price elasticities for different vehicle categories range from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] (by AIDS) and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses.
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spelling pubmed-53690812017-04-05 Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health He, Ling-Yun Yang, Sheng Chang, Dongfeng Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Based on the panel data of 306 cities in China from 2002 to 2012, this paper investigates China’s road transport fuel (i.e., gasoline and diesel) demand system by using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the Quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) models. The results indicate that own-price elasticities for different vehicle categories range from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] (by AIDS) and from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] (by QUAIDS). Then, this study estimates the air pollution emissions ([Formula: see text] , [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) and public health damages from the road transport sector under different oil price shocks. Compared to the base year 2012, results show that a fuel price rise of 30% can avoid 1,147,270 tonnes of pollution emissions; besides, premature deaths and economic losses decrease by 16,149 cases and 13,817.953 million RMB yuan respectively; while based on the non-linear health effect model, the premature deaths and total economic losses decrease by 15,534 and 13,291.4 million RMB yuan respectively. Our study combines the fuel demand and health evaluation models and is the first attempt to address how oil price changes influence public health through the fuel demand system in China. Given its serious air pollution emission and substantial health damages, this paper provides important insights for policy makers in terms of persistent increasing in fuel consumption and the associated health and economic losses. MDPI 2017-03-01 2017-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5369081/ /pubmed/28257076 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030245 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
He, Ling-Yun
Yang, Sheng
Chang, Dongfeng
Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title_full Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title_fullStr Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title_full_unstemmed Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title_short Oil Price Uncertainty, Transport Fuel Demand and Public Health
title_sort oil price uncertainty, transport fuel demand and public health
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5369081/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28257076
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030245
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