Exploring Impacts of Taxes and Hospitality Bans on Cigarette Prices and Smoking Prevalence Using a Large Dataset of Cigarette Prices at Stores 2001–2011, USA

In the USA, little is known about local variation in retail cigarette prices; price variation explained by taxes, bans, and area-level socio-demographics, and whether taxes and hospitality bans have synergistic effects on smoking prevalence. Cigarette prices 2001–2011 from chain supermarkets and drug stores (n = 2973) were linked to state taxes (n = 41), state and county bar/restaurant smoking bans, and census block group socio-demographics. Hierarchical models explored effects of taxes and bans on retail cigarette prices as well as county smoking prevalence (daily, non-daily). There was wide variation in store-level cigarette prices in part due to differences in state excise taxes. Excise taxes were only partially passed onto consumers (after adjustment, $1 tax associated with $0.90 increase in price, p < 0.0001) and the pass-through was slightly higher in areas that had bans but did not differ by area-level socio-demographics. Bans were associated with a slight increase in cigarette price (after adjustment, $0.09 per-pack, p < 0.0001). Taxes and bans were associated with reduction in smoking prevalence and taxes had a stronger association when combined with bans, suggesting a synergistic effect. Given wide variation in store-level prices, and uneven state/county implementation of taxes and bans, more federal policies should be considered.