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A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study
To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5372989/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28272350 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics6010009 |
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author | Carter, Daniel Charlett, André Conti, Stefano Robotham, Julie V. Johnson, Alan P. Livermore, David M. Fowler, Tom Sharland, Mike Hopkins, Susan Woodford, Neil Burgess, Philip Dobra, Stephen |
author_facet | Carter, Daniel Charlett, André Conti, Stefano Robotham, Julie V. Johnson, Alan P. Livermore, David M. Fowler, Tom Sharland, Mike Hopkins, Susan Woodford, Neil Burgess, Philip Dobra, Stephen |
author_sort | Carter, Daniel |
collection | PubMed |
description | To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07–0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400–58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500–160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0–23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0–64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000–1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0–821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5372989 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-53729892017-04-05 A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study Carter, Daniel Charlett, André Conti, Stefano Robotham, Julie V. Johnson, Alan P. Livermore, David M. Fowler, Tom Sharland, Mike Hopkins, Susan Woodford, Neil Burgess, Philip Dobra, Stephen Antibiotics (Basel) Article To inform the UK antimicrobial resistance strategy, a risk assessment was undertaken of the likelihood, over a five-year time-frame, of the emergence and widespread dissemination of pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative bacteria that would pose a major public health threat by compromising effective healthcare delivery. Subsequent impact over five- and 20-year time-frames was assessed in terms of morbidity and mortality attributable to PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia. A Bayesian approach, combining available data with expert prior opinion, was used to determine the probability of the emergence, persistence and spread of PDR bacteria. Overall probability was modelled using Monte Carlo simulation. Estimates of impact were also obtained using Bayesian methods. The estimated probability of widespread occurrence of PDR pathogens within five years was 0.2 (95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.07–0.37). Estimated annual numbers of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemias at five and 20 years were 6800 (95% CrI: 400–58,600) and 22,800 (95% CrI: 1500–160,000), respectively; corresponding estimates of excess deaths were 1900 (95% CrI: 0–23,000) and 6400 (95% CrI: 0–64,000). Over 20 years, cumulative estimates indicate 284,000 (95% CrI: 17,000–1,990,000) cases of PDR Gram-negative bacteraemia, leading to an estimated 79,000 (95% CrI: 0–821,000) deaths. This risk assessment reinforces the need for urgent national and international action to tackle antibiotic resistance. MDPI 2017-03-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5372989/ /pubmed/28272350 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics6010009 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Carter, Daniel Charlett, André Conti, Stefano Robotham, Julie V. Johnson, Alan P. Livermore, David M. Fowler, Tom Sharland, Mike Hopkins, Susan Woodford, Neil Burgess, Philip Dobra, Stephen A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title_full | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title_fullStr | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title_full_unstemmed | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title_short | A Risk Assessment of Antibiotic Pan-Drug-Resistance in the UK: Bayesian Analysis of an Expert Elicitation Study |
title_sort | risk assessment of antibiotic pan-drug-resistance in the uk: bayesian analysis of an expert elicitation study |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5372989/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28272350 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/antibiotics6010009 |
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