The HOSPITAL score and LACE index as predictors of 30 day readmission in a retrospective study at a university-affiliated community hospital

INTRODUCTION: Hospital readmissions are common, expensive, and a key target of the Medicare Value Based Purchasing (VBP) program. Validated risk assessment tools such as the HOSPITAL score and LACE index have been developed to identify patients at high risk of hospital readmission so they can be targeted for interventions aimed at reducing the rate of readmission. This study aims to evaluate the utility of HOSPITAL score and LACE index for predicting hospital readmission within 30 days in a moderate-sized university affiliated hospital in the midwestern United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All adult medical patients who underwent one or more ICD-10 defined procedures discharged from the SIU-SOM Hospitalist service from Memorial Medical Center (MMC) from October 15, 2015 to March 16, 2016, were studied retrospectively to determine if the HOSPITAL score and LACE index were a significant predictors of hospital readmission within 30 days. RESULTS: During the study period, 463 discharges were recorded for the hospitalist service. The analysis includes data for the 432 discharges. Patients who died during the hospital stay, were transferred to another hospital, or left against medical advice were excluded. Of these patients, 35 (8%) were readmitted to the same hospital within 30 days. A receiver operating characteristic evaluation of the HOSPITAL score for this patient population shows a C statistic of 0.75 (95% CI [0.67–0.83]), indicating good discrimination for hospital readmission. The Brier score for the HOSPITAL score in this setting was 0.069, indicating good overall performance. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test shows a χ(2) value of 3.71 with a p value of 0.59. A receiver operating characteristic evaluation of the LACE index for this patient population shows a C statistic of 0.58 (95% CI [0.48–0.68]), indicating poor discrimination for hospital readmission. The Brier score for the LACE index in this setting was 0.082, indicating good overall performance. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness of fit test shows a χ(2) value of 4.97 with a p value of 0.66. DISCUSSION: This single center retrospective study indicates that the HOSPITAL score has superior discriminatory ability when compared to the LACE index as a predictor of hospital readmission within 30 days at a medium-sized university-affiliated teaching hospital. CONCLUSIONS: The internationally validated HOSPITAL score may be superior to the LACE index in moderate-sized community hospitals to identify patients at high risk of hospital readmission within 30 days.