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More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group
2014
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5381411/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25124737 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06087 |
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author | Weller, Evan Cai, Wenju Min, Seung-Ki Wu, Lixin Ashok, Karumuri Yamagata, Toshio |
author_facet | Weller, Evan Cai, Wenju Min, Seung-Ki Wu, Lixin Ashok, Karumuri Yamagata, Toshio |
author_sort | Weller, Evan |
collection | PubMed |
description | The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of extreme ITCZ events under greenhouse warming, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5381411 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2014 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-53814112017-04-11 More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming Weller, Evan Cai, Wenju Min, Seung-Ki Wu, Lixin Ashok, Karumuri Yamagata, Toshio Sci Rep Article The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean exhibits strong interannual variability, often co-occurring with positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events. During what we identify as an extreme ITCZ event, a drastic northward shift of atmospheric convection coincides with an anomalously strong north-minus-south sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Such shifts lead to severe droughts over the maritime continent and surrounding islands but also devastating floods in southern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Understanding future changes of the ITCZ is therefore of major scientific and socioeconomic interest. Here we find a more-than-doubling in the frequency of extreme ITCZ events under greenhouse warming, estimated from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 that are able to simulate such events. The increase is due to a mean state change with an enhanced north-minus-south SST gradient and a weakened Walker Circulation, facilitating smaller perturbations to shift the ITCZ northwards. Nature Publishing Group 2014-08-15 /pmc/articles/PMC5381411/ /pubmed/25124737 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06087 Text en Copyright © 2014, Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder in order to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
spellingShingle | Article Weller, Evan Cai, Wenju Min, Seung-Ki Wu, Lixin Ashok, Karumuri Yamagata, Toshio More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title | More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title_full | More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title_fullStr | More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title_full_unstemmed | More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title_short | More-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern Indian Ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
title_sort | more-frequent extreme northward shifts of eastern indian ocean tropical convergence under greenhouse warming |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5381411/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25124737 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep06087 |
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