Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover

Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistic...

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Autores principales: Schmidt, John Paul, Park, Andrew W., Kramer, Andrew M., Han, Barbara A., Alexander, Laura W., Drake, John M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5382727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28221131
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2303.160101
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author Schmidt, John Paul
Park, Andrew W.
Kramer, Andrew M.
Han, Barbara A.
Alexander, Laura W.
Drake, John M.
author_facet Schmidt, John Paul
Park, Andrew W.
Kramer, Andrew M.
Han, Barbara A.
Alexander, Laura W.
Drake, John M.
author_sort Schmidt, John Paul
collection PubMed
description Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km(2)) and very low (<100/km(2)) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance.
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spelling pubmed-53827272017-04-06 Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover Schmidt, John Paul Park, Andrew W. Kramer, Andrew M. Han, Barbara A. Alexander, Laura W. Drake, John M. Emerg Infect Dis Research Because the natural reservoir of Ebola virus remains unclear and disease outbreaks in humans have occurred only sporadically over a large region, forecasting when and where Ebola spillovers are most likely to occur constitutes a continuing and urgent public health challenge. We developed a statistical modeling approach that associates 37 human or great ape Ebola spillovers since 1982 with spatiotemporally dynamic covariates including vegetative cover, human population size, and absolute and relative rainfall over 3 decades across sub-Saharan Africa. Our model (area under the curve 0.80 on test data) shows that spillover intensity is highest during transitions between wet and dry seasons; overall, high seasonal intensity occurs over much of tropical Africa; and spillover intensity is greatest at high (>1,000/km(2)) and very low (<100/km(2)) human population densities compared with intermediate levels. These results suggest strong seasonality in Ebola spillover from wild reservoirs and indicate particular times and regions for targeted surveillance. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2017-03 /pmc/articles/PMC5382727/ /pubmed/28221131 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2303.160101 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
Schmidt, John Paul
Park, Andrew W.
Kramer, Andrew M.
Han, Barbara A.
Alexander, Laura W.
Drake, John M.
Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title_full Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title_fullStr Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title_full_unstemmed Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title_short Spatiotemporal Fluctuations and Triggers of Ebola Virus Spillover
title_sort spatiotemporal fluctuations and triggers of ebola virus spillover
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5382727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28221131
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2303.160101
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