Marginalized mixture models for count data from multiple source populations

Mixture distributions provide flexibility in modeling data collected from populations having unexplained heterogeneity. While interpretations of regression parameters from traditional finite mixture models are specific to unobserved subpopulations or latent classes, investigators are often interested in making inferences about the marginal mean of a count variable in the overall population. Recently, marginal mean regression modeling procedures for zero-inflated count outcomes have been introduced within the framework of maximum likelihood estimation of zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial regression models. In this article, we propose marginalized mixture regression models based on two-component mixtures of non-degenerate count data distributions that provide directly interpretable estimates of exposure effects on the overall population mean of a count outcome. The models are examined using simulations and applied to two datasets, one from a double-blind dental caries incidence trial, and the other from a horticultural experiment. The finite sample performance of the proposed models are compared with each other and with marginalized zero-inflated count models, as well as ordinary Poisson and negative binomial regression. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40488-017-0057-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.