Comparison of surveillance-based metrics for the assessment and monitoring of disease detection: simulation study about type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Screening and detection of cases are a common public health priority for treatable chronic conditions with long subclinical periods. However, the validity of commonly-used metrics from surveillance systems for rates of detection (or case-finding) have not been evaluated. METHODS: Using data from a Danish diabetes register and a recently developed illness-death model of chronic diseases with subclinical conditions, we simulate two scenarios of different performance of case-finding. We report different epidemiological indices to assess case-finding in both scenarios and compare the validity of the results. RESULTS: The commonly used ratio of detected cases over total cases may lead to misleading conclusions. Instead, the ratio of undetected cases over persons without a diagnosis is a more valid index to distinguish the quality of case-finding. However, incidence-based measures are preferable to prevalence based indicators. CONCLUSION: Prevalence-based indices for assessing case-finding should be interpreted with caution. If possible, incidence-based indices should be preferred. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0328-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.