Increase in serum albumin concentration is associated with prediabetes development and progression to overt diabetes independently of metabolic syndrome

AIM: Serum albumin concentration is associated with both type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome (MetS). We sought to investigate whether baseline serum albumin and change in serum albumin could be independent risk factors for prediabetes in subjects without MetS. We further examined the effect of serum albumin on progression to overt diabetes in subjects who developed prediabetes. METHODS: Among 10,792 participants without diabetes and MetS who consecutively underwent yearly health check-ups over six years, 9,807 subjects without incident MetS were enrolled in this longitudinal retrospective study. The risk of developing prediabetes (impared fasting glucose or hemoglobin A1c) was analyzed according to baseline and percent change in serum albumin concentration using Cox regression analysis. Serial changes in serum albumin concentration were measured from baseline to one year before prediabetes diagnosis, and then from the time of prediabetes diagnosis to progression to overt diabetes or final follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 4,398 incident cases of prediabetes developed during 35,807 person-years (median 3.8 years). The hazard ratio for incident prediabetes decreased as percent change in serum albumin concentration (quartiles and per 1%) increased in a crude and fully adjusted model. However, baseline serum albumin concentration itself was not associated with prediabetic risk. Serum albumin levels kept increasing until the end of follow-up in prediabetic subjects who returned to normal glycemic status, whereas these measures did not change in prediabetic subjects who developed type 2 diabetes. Serum albumin concentration measured at the end of follow-up was the highest in the regression group, compared to the stationary (p = 0.014) or progression groups (p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Increase in serum albumin concentration might protect against early glycemic deterioration and progression to type 2 diabetes even in subjects without MetS.