External Validation and Update of a Prediction Rule for the Duration of Sickness Absence Due to Common Mental Disorders

Purpose The objective of the present study was to validate an existing prediction rule (including age, education, depressive/anxiety symptoms, and recovery expectations) for predictions of the duration of sickness absence due to common mental disorders (CMDs) and investigate the added value of work-related factors. Methods A prospective cohort study including 596 employees who reported sick with CMDs in the period from September 2013 to April 2014. Work-related factors were measured at baseline with the Questionnaire on the Experience and Evaluation of Work. During 1-year follow-up, sickness absence data were retrieved from an occupational health register. The outcome variables of the study were sickness absence (no = 0, yes = 1) at 3 and 6 months after reporting sick with CMDs. Discrimination between workers with and without sickness absence was investigated at 3 and 6 months with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results A total of 220 (37 %) employees agreed to participate and 211 (35 %) had complete data for analysis. Discrimination was poor with AUC = 0.69 and AUC = 0.55 at 3 and 6 months, respectively. When ‘variety in work’ was added as predictor variable, discrimination between employees with and without CMD sickness absence improved to AUC = 0.74 (at 3 months) and AUC = 0.62 (at 6 months). Conclusions The original prediction rule poorly predicted CMD sickness absence duration. After adding ‘variety in work’, the prediction rule discriminated between employees with and without CMD sickness absence 3 months after reporting sick. This new prediction rule remains to be validated in other populations.