Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio compared to N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide as a prognostic marker of adverse events in elderly patients with chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (N/L) ratio has been associated with poor prognosis in patients with heart failure, but it has not been compared with N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in elderly patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). We sought to make this comparison. METHODS: A total of 1355 elderly patients with CHF were analyzed. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze the variables associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). Cox regression analysis was used to assess the multivariable relationship between the N/L ratio, NT-proBNP level, and subsequent major cardiovascular events (MCE). RESULTS: In the multiple logistic regression analysis, the N/L ratio was demonstrated as a risk factor for AF in elderly patients with CHF [odds ratio (OR): 1.079, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.027–1.134, P = 0.003]. The median follow-up period was 18 months. In a multivariable model using tertiles of both variables, the highest tertile of the N/L ratio was significantly associated with MCE [hazard ratio (HR): 1.407, 95% CI: 1.098–1.802, P = 0.007] compared with the lowest tertile. Similarly, the highest NT-proBNP tertile was also significantly associated with MCE (HR: 1.461, 95% CI: 1.104–1.934, P = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: In elderly patients with CHF, the N/L ratio is one of the important risk factors for AF and it is an inexpensive and readily available marker with similar independent prognostic power to NT-proBNP. The risk of MCE increases 1.407-fold when the N/L ratio is elevated to the highest tertile.