A predictive model for lack of partial clinical remission in new-onset pediatric type 1 diabetes

IMPORTANCE: >50% of patients with new-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) do not enter partial clinical remission (PCR); early identification of these patients may improve initial glycemic control and reduce long-term complications. AIM: To determine whether routinely obtainable clinical parameters predict non-remission in children and adolescents with new-onset T1D. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Data on remission were collected for the first 36 months of disease in 204 subjects of ages 2–14 years with new-onset type 1 diabetes. There were 86 remitters (age 9.1±3.0y; male 57%), and 118 non-remitters (age 7.0±3.1y; male 40.7%). PCR was defined as insulin-dose adjusted hemoglobin A1c of ≤9. RESULTS: Non-remission occurred in 57.8% of subjects. Univariable analysis showed that the risk for non-remission was increased 9-fold in patients with 4 diabetes-associated auto-antibodies (OR = 9.90, p = 0.010); 5-fold in patients <5 years old (odds ratio = 5.38, p = 0.032), 3-fold in those with bicarbonate of <15 mg/dL at diagnosis (OR = 3.71, p = 0.008). Combined estimates of risk potential for HC0(3) and the number of autoantibodies by multivariable analysis, adjusted for BMI standard deviation score, showed HC0(3) <15 mg/dL with a clinically significant 10-fold risk (OR = 10.1, p = 0.074); and the number of autoantibodies with a 2-fold risk for non-remission (OR = 1.9, p = 0.105). Male sex and older age were associated with decreased risk for non-remission. A receiver-operating characteristic curve model depicting sensitivity by 1-specificity for non-remission as predicted by bicarbonate <15 mg/dL, age <5y, female sex, and >3 diabetes-associated autoantibodies had an area under the curve of 0.73. CONCLUSIONS: More than 50% of children and adolescents with new-onset T1D do not undergo partial clinical remission and are thus at an increased risk for long-term complications of diabetes mellitus. A predictive model comprising of bicarbonate <15 mg/dL, age <5y, female sex, and >3 diabetes-associated autoantibodies has 73% power for correctly predicting non-remission in children and adolescents with new-onset T1D. Early identification of these non-remitters may guide the institution of targeted therapy to limit dysglycemia and reduce the prevalence of long-term deleterious complications.