Endoscopic gastric atrophy is strongly associated with gastric cancer development after Helicobacter pylori eradication

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for gastric cancer during continuous infection with Helicobacter pylori have been well documented; however, little has been reported on the risk factors for primary gastric cancer after H. pylori eradication. We conducted a retrospective, endoscopy-based, long-term, large-cohort study to clarify the risk factors for gastric cancer following H. pylori eradication. METHODS: Patients who achieved successful H. pylori eradication and periodically underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy surveillance thereafter at Toyoshima Endoscopy Clinic were enrolled. The primary endpoint was the development of gastric cancer. Statistical analysis was performed using the Kaplan–Meier method and Cox’s proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Gastric cancer developed in 15 of 1232 patients. The cumulative incidence rates were 1.0 % at 2 years, 2.6 % at 5 years, and 6.8 % at 10 years. Histology showed that all gastric cancers (17 lesions) in the 15 patients were of the intestinal type, within the mucosal layer, and <20 mm in diameter. Based on univariate analysis, older age and higher endoscopic grade of gastric atrophy were significantly associated with gastric cancer development after eradication of H. pylori, and gastric ulcers were marginally associated. Multivariate analysis identified higher grade of gastric atrophy (hazard ratio 1.77; 95 % confidence interval 1.12–2.78; P = 0.01) as the only independently associated parameter. CONCLUSIONS: Endoscopic gastric atrophy is a major risk factor for gastric cancer development after H. pylori eradication. Further long-term studies are required to determine whether H. pylori eradication leads to regression of H. pylori-related gastritis and reduces the risk of gastric cancer.