Genetic variation, phenotypic stability, and repeatability of drought response in European larch throughout 50 years in a common garden experiment

Assessing intra-specific variation in drought stress response is required to mitigate the consequences of climate change on forest ecosystems. Previous studies suggest that European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), an important European conifer in mountainous and alpine forests, is highly vulnerable to drought. In light of this, we estimated the genetic variation in drought sensitivity and its degree of genetic determination in a 50-year-old common garden experiment in the drought-prone northeastern Austria. Tree ring data from larch provenances originating from across the species' natural range were used to estimate the drought reaction in four consecutive drought events (1977, 1981, 1990–1994, and 2003) with extremely low standardized precipitation- and evapotranspiration-index values that affected growth in all provenances. We found significant differences among provenances across the four drought periods for the trees’ capacity to withstand drought (resistance) and for their capacity to reach pre-drought growth levels after drought (resilience). Provenances from the species' northern distribution limit in the Polish lowlands were found to be more drought resistant and showed higher stability across all drought periods than provenances from mountainous habitats at the southern fringe. The degree of genetic determination, as estimated by the repeatability, ranged up to 0.39, but significantly differed among provenances, indicating varying degrees of natural selection at the provenance origin. Generally, the relationship between the provenances’ source climate and drought behavior was weak, suggesting that the contrasting patterns of drought response are a result of both genetic divergence out of different refugial lineages and local adaptation to summer or winter drought conditions. Our analysis suggests that European larch posseses high genetic variation among and within provenances that can be used for assisted migration and breeding programs.