Time-cumulated blood pressure exposure and incident impairment of glucose tolerance and diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND: With the marked increase in the prevalence of diabetes mellitus, it was the purpose of our study to assess a potential association of time-cumulated exposure to systolic (CumSBP) and of diastolic blood pressure (CumDBP) with onset of impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes mellitus. METHODS: The prospective investigation included participants of the longitudinal Kailuan Study with three baseline examinations in 2006–2007, 2008–2009 and 2010–2011, re-examination in 2012–2013, and no diabetes mellitus at baseline. Cumulative blood pressure (BP) was calculated as cumBP = [(BP(1) + BP(2))/2 × time(1–2)] + [(BP(2) + BP(3))/2 × time(2–3)]. Based on cumSBP, the study population was stratified into four groups (cumSBP < 480mmHgxyear;n = 15,339; 480mmHgxyear ≤ cumSBP < 520mmHgxyear;n = 7214; 520mmHgxyears ≤ cumSBP < 560mmHgxyears;n = 5675; and cumSBP ≥ 560mmHgxyears;n = 10,576). RESULTS: After adjusting for demographic, anthropomorphic, biochemical, socioeconomic and lifestyle parameters and as compared with the first group, the second, third and fourth group showed a significantly higher incidence of diabetes (P-trend < 0.001;hazard ratio (HR);95% confidence interval (CI):1.28(1.08,1.51),1.54(1.29,1.84), and 2.33(1.98,2.73), respectively), higher incidence of impairment of glucose tolerance (P-trend < 0.001;HR;95% CI1.17(1.02,1.33), 1.43(1.25,1.64), and 2.09(1.85,2.37), respectively), and higher incidence of diabetes developing out of an impairment of glucose tolerance (P-trend < 0.001;HR;95% CI:1.22(0.97,1.54),1.47(1.16,1.86), and 2.01(1.62,2.50), respectively). An increase in cumSBP by 10 mmHg/year or an increase in cumDBP by 5 mmHg/year was associated with a hazard ratio of incident diabetes of 1.04 (95% CI:1.03,1.04) and 1.02(1.02,1.03), respectively, with a hazard ratio of incident impairment of glucose tolerance of 1.04(95% CI:1.03,1.04) and 1.03(95% CI:1.02,1.03), respectively, and with a hazard ratio of incident diabetes developing from impairment of glucose tolerance of 1.04(95% CI:1.03,1.04) and 1.03(95% CI:1.02,1.03), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Time-cumulated exposure to elevated blood pressure was significantly associated with an elevated incidence of impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12872-017-0537-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.