Discrete survival model analysis of a couple’s smoking pattern and outcomes of assisted reproduction

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smoking has been associated with worse infertility treatment outcomes, yet some studies have found null or inconsistent results. METHODS: We followed 225 couples who underwent 354 fresh non-donor assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycles between 2006 and 2014. Smoking history was self-reported at study entry. We evaluated the associations between smoking patterns and ART success using multivariable discrete time Cox proportional hazards models with six time periods: cycle initiation to egg retrieval, retrieval to fertilization, fertilization to embryo transfer (ET), ET to implantation, implantation to clinical pregnancy, and clinical pregnancy to live birth to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs. Time-dependent interactions between smoking intensity and ART time period were used to identify vulnerable periods. RESULTS: Overall, 26% of women and 32% of men reported ever smoking. The HR of failing in the ART cycle without attaining live birth for male and female ever smokers was elevated, but non-significant, compared to never smokers regardless of intensity (HR = 1.02 and 1.30, respectively). Female ever smokers were more likely to fail prior to oocyte retrieval (HR: 3.37; 95% CI: 1.00, 12.73). Every one cigarette/day increase in smoking intensity for females was associated with a HR of 1.02 of failing ART (95% CI: 0.97, 1.08), regardless of duration or current smoking status. Women with higher smoking intensities were most likely to fail a cycle prior to oocyte retrieval (HR: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.16). Among past smokers, every additional year since a man had quit smoking reduced the risk of failing ART by 4% (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.91, 1.00) particularly between clinical pregnancy and live birth (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Female smoking intensity, regardless of current smoking status, is positively associated with the risk of failing ART cycles between initiation and oocyte retrieval. In men who ever smoked, smoking cessation may reduce the probability of failing ART, particularly between clinical pregnancy and live birth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00011713. Registered: 27 February 2001. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40738-017-0032-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.