Evaluation of clinicopathological factors in PD-1 response: derivation and validation of a prediction scale for response to PD-1 monotherapy

BACKGROUND: Anti-PD-1 therapy has shown significant clinical activity in advanced melanoma. We developed and validated a clinical prediction scale for response to anti- PD-1 monotherapy. METHODS: A total of 315 patients with advanced melanoma treated with pembrolizumab (2 or 10 mg kg(−1) Q2W or Q3W) or nivolumab (3 mg kg(−1) Q2W) at four cancer centres between 2011 to 2013 served as the setting for the present cohort study. Variables with significant association to response on a univariate analysis were entered into a forward stepwise logistic regression model and were given a score based on ORs to calculate a clinical prediction scale. RESULTS: The developed clinical prediction scale included elevated LDH (1 point), age <65 years (1 point), female sex (1 point), history of ipilimumab treatment (2 points) and the presence of liver metastasis (2 points). The scale had an area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) of 0.73 (95% CI 0.67, 0.80) in predicting response to therapy. The predictive performance of the score was maintained in the validation cohort (AUC 0.70 (95% CI 0.58, 0.81)) and the goodness-to-fit model demonstrated good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a large cohort of patients, we developed and validated a simple five-factor prediction scale for the clinical activity of PD-1 antibodies in advanced melanoma patients. This scale can be used to stratify patients participating in clinical trials.