Summer Temperature and Spatial Variability of all-Cause Mortality in Surat City, India

BACKGROUND: Ample information is available on extreme heat associated mortality for few Indian cities, but scant literature is available on effect of temperature on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for coastal cities. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of daily maximum temperature, relative humidity and heat index on spatial variability of all-cause mortality for summer months (March to May) from 2014 to 2015 for the urban population of Surat (coastal) city. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective analysis of the all-cause mortality data with temperature and humidity was performed on a total of 9,237 deaths for 184 summer days (2014-2015). Climatic and all-cause mortality data were obtained through Tutiempo website and Surat Municipal Corporation respectively. Bivariate analysis performed through SPSS. OBSERVATIONS: Mean daily mortality was estimated at 50.2 ± 8.5 for the study period with a rise of 20% all-cause mortality at temperature ≥ 40°C and rise of 10% deaths per day during extreme danger level (HI: > 54°C) days. Spatial (Zone wise) analysis revealed rise of 61% all-cause mortality for Southeast and 30% for East zones at temperature ≥ 40°C. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality increased on high summer temperature days. Presence of spatial variation in all-cause mortality provided the evidence for high risk zones. Findings may be helpful in designing the interventions at micro level.