Evolution of the “fourth stage” of epidemiologic transition in people aged 80 years and over: population-based cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND: In the “fourth stage” of epidemiological transition, the distribution of non-communicable diseases is expected to shift to more advanced ages, but age-specific changes beyond 80 years of age have not been reported. METHODS: This study aimed to evaluate demographic and health transitions in a population aged 80 years and over in the United Kingdom from 1990 to 2014, using primary care electronic health records. Epidemiological analysis of chronic morbidities and age-related impairments included a cohort of 299,495 participants, with stratified sampling by five-year age group up to 100 years and over. Cause-specific proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios for incidence rates over time. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2014, nonagenarians and centenarians increased as a proportion of the over-80 population, as did the male-to-female ratio among individuals aged 80 to 95 years. A lower risk of coronary heart disease (HR 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50–0.58), stroke (0.83, 0.76–0.90) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.59, 0.54–0.64) was observed among 80–84 year-olds in 2010–2014 compared to 1995–1999. By contrast, the risk of type II diabetes (2.18, 1.96–2.42), cancer (1.52, 1.43–1.61), dementia (2.94, 2.70–3.21), cognitive impairment (5.57, 5.01–6.20), and musculoskeletal pain (1.26, 1.21–1.32) was greater in 2010–2014 compared to 1995–1999. CONCLUSIONS: Redistribution of the over-80 population to older ages, and declining age-specific incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in over-80s, are consistent with the “fourth stage” of epidemiologic transition, but increases in diabetes, cancer, and age-related impairment show new emerging epidemiological patterns in the senior elderly. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12963-017-0136-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.